Jan O'Brien - Real Estate Coach

Home Prices Continue to Decline Nationally According to Latest S&P/Case-Shiller Report

Two of the most closely watched barometers of U.S. home prices are the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight home-price index and the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.  Read more about these indices at the Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog: Ofheo vs. Case-Shiller: A Primer.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States.
For a fifth consecutive month, all areas showed a decrease in prices in August compared with a year earlier, led by 31 percent declines in Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Download the recent press release (National Trend of Home Price Declines Continues into the Second Half of 2008 - According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices):
  CSHomePrice_Release_102831.pdf

 

Links to other articles of interest:

• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - link to all the reports and data
• Time Article: The Housing Bust: Signs of Bottoming out?
• From Bloomberg.com: Home Prices in 20 US Cities Fell From a Year Ago

Is the Housing Crisis Over? ...Indications that the Las Vegas Real Estate Market is Heating Up

This editorial opinion by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, "The Housing Crisis is Over" appeared in the Wall Street Journal on May 6, 2008 and has been getting a lot of attention in the blogosphere.

The author quotes historical real estate cycles and claims the national housing market is approaching the bottom now based on a variety of facts and economic trends:

• Home sales peaked in July 2005
• New Home sales are down 63% from peak levels
• Housing starts have fallen more than 50%
• Affordability - prices have declined while, generally, incomes have grown

Brett Arends asserts in his article "Is Housing Slump at a Bottom" that we may be at the bottom of the housing market because housing starts dropped below the One Million mark in March.  "Every time that has happened in the last 50 years, it proved to be the bottom of a recession."

Indications in Las Vegas are that prices may continue to fall further, yet NOW is definitely a great time to buy - here's why:

• Over 60% of sales are REO or Short Sales - there are tremendous bargains out there right now!
• From 4/1/08 to 4/30/08, Las Vegas had 1927 closed resale single family, condos & townhome: Download April2008REO-Stats.pdf 
  • REO - 1224 (63.5%)
  • Short Sales - 144 (7.5%)
  • Traditional resales were 19% of the market for the month
• Total number of contracts written is increasing dramatically.  GLVAR statistics show that 770 listings went into Pending or Contingent status in a one week period between April 21-28.   Notice the dramatic trend upward on written contracts since January 2008:
  

  

            Download GLVAR_UnderContract.pdf

• Banks are pricing their REO listings to sell - sometimes below the market  - thus generating activity and multiple offers.
• Motivated sellers are finally shifting their list prices into the "Showing Zone".  For more on this trend, check out Forrest Barbee's Las Vegas Real Estate Market 2008 post.
• Interest rates remain at historically low rates.  Even with the tightening of the mortgage market, there are a variety of loan programs to choose from.  FHA loans are now a realistic option in Las Vegas due to the new loan limit of $400,000.

• Download las_vegas_market_condition_report_may_2008.pdf (Market Condition Report from Equity Title):

  • The report indicates a shift and positive change in closing numbers which, if the pattern continues, will surpass 2007 numbers in about 60 days.
  • Percent Selling and Absorption Rate demonstrated substantial increases after a series of declines and pendings indicate that trend may continue.

The bottom line ... the market continues to adjust and there are great opportunities in the market now... what are you doing to adjust and take advantage of this market?

Short Sale Tips for Real Estate Agents and Sellers

Mark Stark, CEO of Prudential Americana Group Realtors in Las Vegas has just posted some excellent tips and strategies for short sales.  This post is a summary of the major points he covered at a recent seminar attended by over 120 people in Las Vegas (consumers and real estate agents alike).

Mark includes valuable information geared to the consumer about:

• Why consider a short sale?
• The decision-making process and mindset of the seller
• Positioning yourself for the future
• Options and Solutions

More articles on REO, Short Sales, Foreclosures

Here are links to more great blog resources on short sales, REOs and foreclosures from the legal blog of Prudential Americana Group's in-house attorney, Darren Welsh:

REOs:

http://ameglegal.wordpress.com/2007/11/09/tgif-legal-tip-resale-packages-for-nevada-reo-sales/

Foreclosures:

http://ameglegal.wordpress.com/2007/04/27/tgif-legal-tip-foreclosuredeficiency/

Short Sales:

Listing Agent Perspective: http://ameglegal.wordpress.com/2008/02/08/tgif-short-sales-from-the-listing-agents-perspective/

Seller's Perspective:  http://ameglegal.wordpress.com/2007/05/04/tgif-legal-tip-short-sale-seller-perspective/#more-40

Mortgage Debt Relief for Foreclosures and Short Sales:  http://ameglegal.wordpress.com/2007/12/21/tgif-legal-tip-mortgage-debt-relief-for-foreclosures-short-sales/

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update - March 2008

In December I wrote a post entitled Understanding the Las Vegas Real Estate Market.  I listed a variety of recommended resources to educate yourself and ultimately your clients about current market conditions and trends.

Here are a couple more resources to bring you up to date on the Las Vegas Real Estate Market as of March 2008:

• Equity Title recently produced a graph that defines past peaks and valleys in terms of pendings and contingents. The graph suggests the market is entering a time of great potential for those who are prepared. Pending and Contingent graph
• Forrest Barbee’s Blog - Our Corporate Broker, Forrest Barbee, maintains a blog on Education, Training and Career Development. He posts a very informative monthly market update - Check out Las Vegas Market Update March 2008.
• Here's the very informative Market Condition Report for March 2008 from Equity Title:

  Download MCR_MAR_2008.pdf

Understanding the Las Vegas Real Estate Market

Educate Yourself and Your Clients About the Las Vegas Real Estate Market.  Adjusting to the real estate market is critical to a successful real estate business.  Now more than ever it is essential to stay informed and updated on the trends, statisitics and historical data impacting our real estate market.  Have you updated your Listing and Buyer Presentations with this critical information?  Are you comfortable explaining the real estate market and helping your seller price their property to sell?

Current supply and demand clearly shows that active listing inventory is approximately 14% overpriced on average - educating real estate agents and sellers to this point is a process and the issue at hand.  The good news - we are seeing signs of increased buyer activity and sales.  Of course the strong Las Vegas economy and job growth also supports a recovery hopefully sooner rather than later compared to other markets in the country.

Where to find - Las Vegas Real Estate Market information:

• Visit this resource page on CareerRealty and scroll down to Educate Yourself about the Market to download a variety of graphs, stats and market data.
• Members of GLVAR can access a myriad of graphs and current market data at www.LasVegasRealtor.com including this SFR Listed vs Sold graph:
  
  

  

• Equity Title produces a monthly Market Condition Report with commentary.  Contact Tracy Ruccia, 702-510-9822, tracyr@eqtitlenev.com to get on the email list to receive this report.
• www.Salestraq.com - Fast Facts is an e-newsletter about the new and existing home market. $25/month.  Contact Larry Murphy, 702-255-7891, larry@salestraq.com
• www.HomeBuildersResearch.com - Monthly Market overview. $18/month.  Contact Dennis Smith, 702-645-4200, hbr1@cox.net.
• UNLV - Center for Business and Research presents the quarterly Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions for $25/year.

Read these posts for some more great information on utilizing current stats and market data:

Gaining  Perspective & Getting a Better Handle on Pricing and Value by Mark Stark

Las Vegas Real Estate Market December 2007 by Forrest Barbee

Thriving in the Las Vegas Real Estate Market - Seminar Notes

On December 5, 2007, I conducted a seminar with Matthew Hardy of REST - real estate software I use and highly recommend!  The seminar was entitled "How to Thrive in the Current Real Estate Market". 

If you are interested in the outline and links to resources and other materials - just go to the REST-Event link at www.CareerRealty.com - How To Thrive in the Current Real Estate Market.

Matthew and I reviewed key lessons and business applications of 4 excellent books:

• E-Myth Revisited by Michael Gerber
• You Can't Teach a Kid to Ride a Bike at a Seminar by David Sandler
• Millionaire Real Estate Agent by Gary Keller, Dave Jenks and Jay Papasan
• Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity by David Allen

We also detailed Seven Secrets to Thrive in Real Estate... a condensed version of an earlier post on the subject.

1. YOU Are the Creator of your Reality.
2. Educate yourself about the market and learn how to better present the current market story.
3. Get back to the basics NOW. 
4. Develop and implement an Action Management System.
5. Adopt a daily ritual to start your day in a positive mindset.
6. Have a daily activity plan, show up and work it.
7. Ask for help.  Get an accountability partner or hire a coach.

How to Thrive in the Current Real Estate Market

Our current real estate market in Las Vegas (and around the country) presents an interesting test for all involved... from the buyers, to the sellers to the practicing real estate agents and also for the brokerage firms  I've been living and working in Las Vegas since 1992 and this is my first experience in a "challenging market".   Fueled by local and national media with a slant to reporting the negative, "newsworthy" hype of doom and gloom, buyers are afraid to purchase, waiting for the  elusive "bottom of the market" before jumping back in.  Sellers are holding on to every ounce of equity and hope which has led to only about 30% of the current inventory of available homes to be priced properly for a sale based on current supply and demand.  And real estate professionals are either thriving, surviving, trying to adjust or in many cases giving up.

The following points are my observations and best advice on how to Thrive  (not just Survive) in Today's market.

1. You ARE the Creator of your Reality.  Check in with yourself often.  Are your thoughts positive or negative - towards or away from what you desire? Do you find yourself slipping into the negative muck and mire - from the media or the glass is half-empty real estate agents around you?  Be deliberate and intentional in your thoughts and actions.  Focus on what you want not what you don't want.
2. Educate yourself  about the market, understand the stats and trends.  Become an expert in short sales, REO, foreclosure process.  Make sure you are receiving current market data from local sources.  For Las Vegas, I recommend the Equity Title Market Condition Report and Salestraq Fast Facts. Read Forrest Barbee's recent post on the Las Vegas Market October 2007.   Check out the great information including audio conference calls on Mark Stark's Blog.
3. Learn how to better present the history and current market story to your buyers and sellers.  Update your buyer and listing presentations with supporting graphs, statistics, etc.  Take sale-able, properly-priced listings!  Use all of your available company marketing and advertising tools.
4. Get back to the basics now.  Do you have a solid SOI/Referral system in place?  Are you prospecting  daily?
5. Have a written business plan with specific goals.  Track your expenditures and return on investment.   Know what's working and what is not and make the appropriate adjustments.
6. Adopt a daily ritual to start your day in a positive mindset.  Some suggestions...morning meditation, prayer, exercise, read your affirmations, review your goals, eat breakfast, review your day's tasks and schedule.
7. Exercise and eat properly for you.  I recommend yoga!
8. Show up - Mentally, Physically, Emotionally and Spiritually.  Now more than ever it's important to get up, do your morning mindset ritual, get dressed for success and go into the office or that first appointment.
9. Have a daily activity plan and work it - know how many calls, face-to-face contacts, emails, mailers, contacts you must make before you call it a day.  Challenge yourself with daily goals - don't go home until you have at least one appointment for example.
10. Get an accountability partner or hire a coach. Ask for help.  Help each other.  Form a support and accountability group.

1st Annual Charity Auction for Sunshine Kids set for Dec 4th

Prudential Americana Group REALTORS, led by a highly motivated and caring agent-driven committee, is hosting a charity auction event on Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 from 9 am to 1 pm at the West Sahara Branch. All proceeds will benefit the Sunshine kids Foundation - an organization dedicated to supporting kids with cancer. The Sunshine Kids Foundation works with pediatric oncology units throughout the country to provide trips and fun activities for children with cancer.

Las Vegas Auctioneer Guy Deiro has donated his professional services as the event's auctioneer. We are currently seeking donations for the event (gift certificates, trips, gift baskets, sports & entertainment memorabilia, art, jewelry, etc). Contact me directly (702.858.9191 or jano@americanagrp.com ) if you are interested in donating an item for the event.

For more information download the following documents:

• Download SSKideflyer.pdf
• Download SSKDonationLtr.pdf

The Committee has set a goal of $44,000 which will provide fully-supported trips for approximately 9 kids. Everyone is invited to the Auction - come join the fun, eat, drink, and shop - all for the benefit of this great charity!

June 2007 Las Vegas Real Estate Market Condition Report

Here is the June 2007 edition of the Las Vegas Real Estate Market Condition Report courtesy of Equity Title of Nevada. This is an excellent tool to use with your clients/sphere of infuence/personal database to keep them updated and educated on the LasVegas Real Estate Market.

Download mcrlas_vegas_valley_june_2007_plus_comments_and_opinion.pdf

Here is an excerpt from the report showing current trends in our market.

Las Vegas Real Estate - April 2007 Fast Facts

Are you staying on top of the Las Vegas Real Estate Market?  Here is another excellent report to do just that....  the April 2007 edition of Fast Facts from Larry Murphy of Salestraq and Steve Bottfeld of Marketing Solutions and the Bottfeld Report. 

Download APRIL2007.pdf

Make sure to also download the analysis of the data here...Download april_2007_fast_facts.doc.

On the left is an excerpt from the report that shows the number of active listings in the MLS for 2006 and 2007.  Current supply of homes is over 12 months.

Larry & Steve state: "This may be the best time in history to buy a home in Las Vegas."  They also note that even though April's housing data was, "as expected, a continuation of the housing bottom we have been scraping along for nearly six months... there appeared to be some minute improvements worth noting."

Download the full reports for all the details and analysis.

I highly recommend attending the Crystal Ball Seminar for the latest information and trends on the Las Vegas Real Estate Market.  The next event is scheduled for July 19, 2007 at the Texas Station. 3 Hours of CE Credit is now available once a year for seminar attendees.